The Incidence of Trilateral Retinoblastoma: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PURPOSE To estimate the incidence of trilateral retinoblastoma in patients with retinoblastoma. DESIGN Systematic review and meta-analysis. METHODS We searched Medline and Embase for scientific literature published between January 1966 and July 2015 that assessed trilateral retinoblastoma incidence. We used a random-effects model for the statistical analyses. RESULTS We included 23 retinoblastoma cohorts from 26 studies. For patients with bilateral retinoblastoma the unadjusted chance of developing trilateral retinoblastoma across all cohorts was 5.3% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.3%-7.7%); the chance of pineal trilateral retinoblastoma was 4.2% (95% CI: 2.6%-6.2%) and the chance of nonpineal trilateral retinoblastoma was 0.8% (95% CI: 0.4%-1.3%). In patients with hereditary retinoblastoma (all bilateral cases, and the unilateral cases with a family history or germline RB1 mutation) we found a trilateral retinoblastoma incidence of 4.1% (95% CI: 1.9%-7.1%) and a pineal trilateral retinoblastoma incidence of 3.7% (95% CI: 1.8%-6.2%). To reduce the risk of overestimation bias we restricted analysis to retinoblastoma cohorts with a minimum size of 100 patients, resulting in adjusted incidences of 3.8% (95% CI: 2.4%-5.4%), 2.9% (95% CI: 1.9%-4.2%), and 0.7% (95% CI: 0.3%-1.2%) for any, pineal, and nonpineal trilateral retinoblastoma, respectively, among patients with bilateral retinoblastoma. Among hereditary retinoblastoma we found an adjusted trilateral retinoblastoma incidence of 3.5% (95% CI: 1.2%-6.7%) and a pineal trilateral retinoblastoma incidence of 3.2% (95% CI: 1.4%-5.6%). CONCLUSION The estimated incidence of trilateral retinoblastoma is lower than what is reported in previous literature, especially after exclusion of small cohorts that were subject to overestimation bias in this context.